Why Keir Starmer will (sadly) be Britain's Next Prime Minister

Dreaming Tories are lulling themselves into a false sense of security given the coming battle to avoid disaster.

In recent weeks, many Conservatives - whether students, commentators or politicians (as seen recently in The Spectator), have been telling themselves that they might return to power when voters next cast their verdict on politicians, most likely in Autumn 2024. It is time that these delusions of grandeur were finally laid to rest.

First, we should give credit where credit is due. These commentators are right that (ignoring a hugely complicated picture in Scotland which I will come to later) Labour faces a huge challenge winning a majority. They need a mammoth 1997-style swing in order to get a measly majority on the scale of the Tories’ working majority in 2015. That is true.

There is, though, a major challenge for those who argue the Tories might win the next election: maths. They are not arguing that Keir Starmer won’t have a comfy majority, an idea with more intellectual credibility than most give credit to: they are, in fact, arguing that the Conservatives won’t lose 40 seats. The Conservatives currently have 354 MPs. If you assume that they would win by-elections in seats defended by ex-Tory independents, such as everyone’s favourite kangaroo-anus-eater Matt Hancock (a bold assumption), you might reach 361 Tory MPs. Given that just 320 MPs are needed for an effective majority, the Tories would need to lose 41 seats in order to lose their effective majority.

You may cry ‘But the Tories would be the largest party so what about a coalition?’ After all, convention says we’d have the first shot at forming a government. My response is simple – who in their right mind would form a coalition to keep the Tories in power now? The Lib Dems are still traumatised by the ‘I’m Sorry’ tuition fees experience, the DUP will only have 8 seats after 2024 and hate the Windsor Framework, and it’s not like Caroline Lucas or Stephen Flynn are going to work with us.

This all is without considering the new landscape emerging in Scotland. With the SNP significantly diminished and Sturgeon tipped to be hauled to a police station in handcuffs before long, it is Labour, not the Conservatives, who will reap the political benefit. Those who want independence for Scotland fundamentally want change, Labour provides this, we cannot after 14 years in government.

In truth, then, all we need to show the fallacy of believing the Tories will get re-elected is find 50 seats (to be safe) the Tories will lose in 2024. It’s that simple. According to Martin Baxter’s Electoral Calculus model, we are forecast to win just four London seats compared to our 21 in 2019.  In the North East, on a modest 12-point Labour lead, we lose 9 of 10 seats. In the North West, on the same lead, it’s far worse, losing 24 seats. And there, we already have the 50 required. Labour may not even need any wins (for either themselves or the Lib Dems) in the South or Wales. It seems simply untenable to claim , as some confidently are doing, that we’ll win in 2024.

An examination of the next election also requires a check up on the government’s own priorities. As it says itself in its local elections party broadcast, it has ‘five clear promises that you can judge us on, no tricks, no ambiguity, we’re either delivering for you or we’re not.’ So let’s examine their priorities.

1)    Halve Inflation – despite OBR forecasts suggesting this would happen without government intervention, the forecasts have consistently underpredicted inflation with the latest figures 10.1% inflation where 8.8% was predicted. The government seems to have no plan to really tackle it.

2)    Grow the economy – we’re narrowly avoiding recession so they will manage this, though as Fraser Nelson of the Spectator pointed out at the time, if they didn’t hit this they would have the worst economic record since Henry 7th.

3)    Reduce debt – dream on…

4)    Cut waiting lists – overall waiting lists are where they were at the start of the year.

5)    Stop the boats – numbers are lower than last year but they have not got anywhere near ‘stopping the boats’.

We are now into May and staring down the barrel of the local election gun. Even being as generous as possible to the government, it is doing a risible job of delivering on its priorities. Thursday’s results may well be a reflection on that lack of progress.

Those who think Rishi Sunak will still be PM after the next general election are a dangerous complacent distraction the Tories cannot afford to indulge. There is much work to do to avoid a sizeable Labour majority at the next election. The smart money is currently on a slim Labour majority in 2024. Such a bet acknowledges the challenges Labour faces but does not hang on to the flying pigs-esque fantasy of the Tories staying in government a day longer than the election. Unfortunately for backers of the Party, the Conservatives, with at least 32 MPs quitting their seats in 2024, have resigned themselves to years in opposition and we should prepare for this hard reality.

Bertie Hawkins (Publications Editor) is a 2nd Year undergraduate at LMH reading PPE.

Image Credit: Chris McAndrew and UK Parliament under Creative Commons License